2025年 04期

Optimal Emergency Medical Resources Allocation Strategy Based on Individual Contact Network


摘要(Abstract):

针对新发传染病等突发公共卫生事件初期应急医疗资源较为有限的问题,基于多源人口统计数据构建具有地区人口结构特征以及行为动力学规律的多场景人际接触网络,进而构建基于个体接触网络的病毒传播动态模型,对比分析基本再生数不同时不同资源分配策略对疾病传播的影响。结果表明:当病毒的传染性较小时,优先为人群中的活跃个体分配资源的效果更好;当资源覆盖率提高至40%时,基本可以抑制疾病传播;当病毒的传染性较强时,使用医疗资源的作用不再显著,可以优先考虑为老年人和婴幼儿分配资源,以减少住院和死亡人数显。

关键词(KeyWords):突发公共卫生事件;应急医疗资源分配;个体接触网络;病毒传播动态模型

基金项目(Foundation):国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFE0112300);; 国家自然科学基金项目(62025602)

作者(Author): 王淑祺,徐铭达,杜占玮,王震,高超

DOI: 10.13349/j.cnki.jdxbn.20250509.003

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