2026年 02期

摘要(Abstract)：

为了探索降水与气象因子、大气环流现象之间的相关关系，以南水北调工程受水区黄淮海地区为研究区，通过Kendall秩相关检验，分析厄尔尼诺现象和温度与研究区内降水的相关性；采用Mann-Kendall检验和Pettitt检验方法对单变量序列进行趋势分析和变点检验；利用C-vine Copula模型构建以月降水量为关键变量的多元联合分布模型，并采用Copula似然比检验方法对多变量的降水序列进行变点检验研究。结果表明：研究区月平均气温呈微弱的上升趋势，月降水量、月平均温度和南方涛动指数的单变量序列无明显的突变点；在C-vine Copula模型结构中，一级树结构中月降水量与月平均气温在2013年3月发生突变，二级树结构在2014年11月和2015年1月发生突变，原因是2013年前后研究区极端事件高发和大气环流异常改变了降水模式，一级树结构中月平均气温与月降水量的突变也是导致二级树结构突变的原因之一。

关键词(KeyWords)：降水;气象因子;Copula 似然比检验;变点检验;黄淮海地区

基金项目(Foundation):国家自然科学基金项目(42301046); 山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR202102240660)

作者(Author):姜戴菁，桑国庆，刘友春，孙凯莲，刘阳，徐嘉璐

DOI:10.13349/j.cnki.jdxbn.20260204.002

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